The 30.5% Threshold: Why Polymarket's Iran War Contract Is a Macro Liquidity Signal, Not a News Item
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Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Team and early investor shares released
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Block reward halving event
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
92 million ARB released
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Bitcoin Season
| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,498.2 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,879.91 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.71 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$569.9 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.1 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0717 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1653 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.78 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8172 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.4 |